The globe’s building market is destined for a 10-year boom that will guarantee more than a trillion dollars’ worth of opportunities in spite of COVID, says a recent report.
Oxford Economics anticipates that the dollar value of Gross Value Added (GVA – output value less inputs) in global building to grow by $US1.5 trillion, to increase from $US4.3 trillion in 2019 (constant 2015 prices) to $US5.8 trillion by the year 2030.
The report states that between 2019 and 2030:
- China will retain that position as the largest construction market, reaching nearly $US1.4 trillion in value over the next 10 years (Gross Value Added).
- India’s building output will double and reach almost $US400 billion.
- Almost ten percent of worldwide growth will occur in ASEAN regions, with Indonesia destined to claim its place as the fifth largest market.
- Sub-Saharan Africa is destined to become the fastest growing region, with Nigeria shooting upward from its place as the 27th largest market in the world in 2019 to the eighth largest market in 2030.
- The developing world will accumulate market share at the expense of the developed world, enhancing its share of the global building market from 48 percent in 2019 to 59 percent in 2030.
- In regards to the developed world, Angloshpere countries will develop faster than Europe and Japan. In total, construction output in the US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand will increase by 21 percent.
In terms of the COVID-19 era, Oxford reports that building activity decreased by about ten percent over the first half of 2020 as the industry experienced the results of lockdowns and restrictions.
In places like France, Italy and Spain, where COVID has decreased 26.0 percent, 21.8 percent and 20.6 percent in activity respectively between the fourth quarter of 2019 and this June quarter.
Oxford anticipates a resurgence in which construction activity will resume pre-COVID levels in China, the United States and India by the first quarter of 2021.
Construction will recover more quickly compared to other sectors, Oxford asserts, as social distancing is easier to accomplish and the building sector depends more on investing instead of consumer spending.
Nations like France, Spain, Italy, Brazil and the United Kingdom will not resume pre-COVID activity levels until 2022.
In Australia, BIS believes that the building sector will contract by 10.4 percent in 2020, followed by 7.1 percent advancement in 2021.
In the longer run, Oxford states that opportunities will arise in some categories.
Civil construction, which accounts for 30 percent of worldwide building activity, will be impelled by big levels of investment as growing markets continue to develop transport networks, water and sewerage systems and other widescale projects required for economic growth.
On the housing front, residential demand will be motivated by continuing relocation movement from rural to urban areas – particularly in developing nations.
In Australia, Oxford says that the country will go against grain by keeping up its current market share (1.9 percent) over the next decade amid great population growth and a steady schedule of infrastructure projects.